Thursday, December 13, 2012

Jonathan Krause Really Should Learn How to Read

It's been a while since we've taken a whack at the Jonathan Krause pinata, but since today's edition of his drivel is such low-hanging fruit, we thought we'd bring out ye ole' Ugly Stick and take some batting practice. (Mixed metaphors -- we love 'em!)

Here are the first two graphs of JK's post:
There is a Biblical verse that Dave Ramsey (2-5 weekdays on WOSH) likes to quote all of the time:  "The borrower is slave to the lender."  In Biblical times, that had very literal meaning, as those who owed someone could be forced into slavery to repay a debt.  This week, the folks at the activist group One Wisconsin took it nearly that far, comparing student loan borrowers to "indentured servants"
There's nothing to really add about the first graph, but do please note that Krause will be referring to the op-ed he himself links to above.

The group conducted a small amount of research and found that the average college graduate takes 19-years to pay off their student loans--at monthly payments of $388.  My calculator tells me that is a total repayment of more than 88-thousand dollars over the life of the loans.  The only problem is, that doesn't jibe with the national averages cited in dozens of other locations:  that the average college debt is $26,600 dollars--and the average time to pay that off is 11-years.  As the Left often likes to do, it appears One Wisconsin made sure to find as many people in the deepest possible holes to make the situation look as dire as possible.

This graph deserves a line-by-line examination.
The group conducted a small amount of research and found that the average college graduate takes 19-years to pay off their student loans--at monthly payments of $388.
First, what Krause calls a "small amount of research" is actually a survey of 2,658 people in the state of Wisconsin. That's considerably larger than the sample size of most political opinion polls. The biennial St. Norbert's Wisconsin Survey typically only reaches about 400 respondents, while Charles Franklin's monthly polls for Marquette Law School contact upwards of 1200+.

More importantly, however, is the fact that Krause completely misrepresents what he is trying to report. He reports that One Wisconsin found that "the average college graduate takes 19-years to pay off their student loans--at monthly payments of $388." Except this is not what One Wisconsin is claiming. Here is OWN's finding, emphasis added:
Nearly one-third of those with a bachelor's or advanced degree are now making a student loan payments, and that payments average $388 per month. 
The length of student loan debt was nearly 19 years for people with bachelor's degrees and over 22 years for those with graduate or professional degrees.
Got that? Krause claims the average monthly student loan burden for a college graduate is $388, that figure is a.) not a cumulative average, but an average for just a third of the student loan holders (an presumably the upper third at that), and b.) not just among people with only bachelor's degrees, but includes those with advanced degrees as well, which can considerably increase the total cost of one's higher education.

Moving on:
My calculator tells me that is a total repayment of more than 88-thousand dollars over the life of the loans.
He's right -- it's $88,464 to be precise, but the problem here is that Krause is multiplying apples and oranges and arriving at just one convenient fruit. Remember, the $388/month figure includes loanees with "bachelor's or advanced degrees" while the 19 year number is just for "average college graduates," and since the "average" college graduate doesn't have a graduate degree, it's doubtful these numbers are commensurate.
The only problem is, that doesn't jibe with the national averages cited in dozens of other locations:  that the average college debt is $26,600 dollars--and the average time to pay that off is 11-years.
"Dozens of other locations" and yet Krause can't even bring himself to link to one of them? It's make you wonder where he got the $26,000 figure in the first place. Well, if you followed the link he provides in the first paragraph you'll discover that he got it from something called the Institute for College Access and Success by way of ... One Wisconsin.

But there are a number of legitimate reasons for the discrepancy that Krause appears oblivious to. The first is that the $88,000+ is total paid by Wisconsin graduates, some of whom have advanced degrees, over the lifetime of the loan, which includes accumulated interest; while the $26,000 is an average debt owed among national undergraduates on the day they leave school. It took us all of 15 seconds to discover the reason behind this discrepancy, but that doesn't Krause from ignoring possible root causes and proceeding directly to one of his trademark gross mischaracterizations  of poorly interpreted information:
As the Left often likes to do, it appears One Wisconsin made sure to find as many people in the deepest possible holes to make the situation look as dire as possible.
Unfortunately, this episode is a much better example of an idiot radio news-reader who didn't take the time to, you know, read a story carefully and simply contorted the data to fit his worldview. The bulk of the post is Krause riding his "fuck you, you lazy fucks!" Though, I guess it reads a little hollow coming from such a very lazy reader as Krause.

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